On the occasion of MEP Tarja Cronberg’s visit to Washington D.C., we had the chance to speak to her about the current nuclear negotiations with Iran, the human rights situation within the country and the role of the EU in supporting the political opening under President Hasan Rouhani.
hbs: The public debate on Iran is currently dominated by the multilateral negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program. Official assessments on the progress made during the current negotiations are rather scarce. How hopeful are you that the P5+1 will be able to reach an agreement in July?
Tarja Cronberg: The political will in Iran is very strong to achieve an agreement. Whether an agreement will be reached in July is of course a more open question. But as far as we know, the technical questions - questions related to enrichment and so forth - are proceeding quite well. There are going to be meetings next month where some of the suggestions discussed will also be put down in writing. Generally, I am hopeful, although anything may happen. In particular, it remains to be seen how the current tensions between the US and the EU on the one hand and Russia on the other hand will affect the negotiations.
hbs: What are the most crucial elements a comprehensive agreement must hold in the view of the E3?
Tarja Cronberg: Of course, the bottom line is that Iran will not get nuclear weapons. A critical element to ensure this goal is to increase Iran’s “breakout time”. This measure determines how much time the international community will have in order to react and implement new sanctions if there are signs that the Iranians are developing nuclear weapons. A breakout time of 6 to 12 months, if achieved through the necessary limitations on enrichment, number of centrifuges, and production facilities, would be a good achievement.
hbs: In how far do the European negotiation parties speak with one voice at the negotiation table and then how far do they differ from the US position?
Tarja Cronberg: In the run-up to the Joint Plan of Action, we witnessed some differences among the EU countries. France, for example, went further in its minimum requirements for a deal than others in certain areas. But right now, I think the European parties are talking with one voice, at least according to what we hear. I believe they are also, generally speaking, in agreement with the US negotiators.
hbs: What, in your opinion, poses the greatest potential barriers to success in the current negotiations? Should we prepare- or are we prepared- for the potential failure of the talks?
Tarja Cronberg: One critical question, for example, concerns the issue of enrichment. Iran will need to accept a limit to its level of enrichment, but the exact level is yet to be determined. Israel, for example, has requested zero enrichment and there are also voices in the US Congress that demand the same. I think the compromise will be that Iran can have some enrichment for peaceful purposes. The critical issue depends on the level. Those issues, I think, are still open.
hbs: Do you think we are prepared for the failure of the talks?
Tarja Cronberg: I think individual countries may be prepared for the failure of the talks. We also should not forget that the sanctions are still in place and not affected by the talks to a great extent. It is also clear that the failure of these talks would have a critical impact on the nuclear non proliferation, and on the nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) itself. Next year, the 2015 Review conference on the treaty will be convened. If there is no agreement with Iran until then, the treaty itself will most likely be questioned and we might see proliferation of nuclear weapons to other countries.
hbs: The indications as to whether the foreign policy opening under Rouhani is matched by a domestic opening are somewhat contradictory. You recently visited Iran and got the chance to meet a range of civil society representatives. What is your assessment of the current state of human rights and political freedoms?
Tarja Cronberg: There are two things which President Rouhani has achieved. One is that, according to the UN experts we met, there is greater room for civil society and NGOs to work now. Secondly, he has released some political prisoners. On the other hand, the number of executions has increased. There are different interpretations whether this is due to the judiciary, which actually wants to show that Rouhani’s power is limited, or whether he actually approves of this. The current struggle between the hardliners and the Rouhani government also plays out in the area of human rights.
hbs: Do you see the danger of the U.S. and Europe currently compromising their support for the democratic voices in Iran in order not to disturb the nuclear negotiations track?
Tarja Cronberg: No. I think the human rights violations, especially the executions, have received much attention in the press. Many voices from both the US and the EU have condemned the number of executions and the violations of political rights of the Iranian people. I do not see the nuclear issue compromising our stance on the human rights situation. The concrete change we see, of course, is that Iran is no longer so isolated. A number of delegations and European foreign ministers have recently visited Iran. As the nuclear negotiations are entering into a critical phase, there are high expectations both on the European side and the Iranian side.
hbs: What can the EU, and the West in general, do in order to support the moderate and democratic actors in Iran? How vocal should we be in our support for the reformist current, especially considering the danger of a backlash against those who are openly associated with the West?
Tarja Cronberg: I think it’s a very fine balancing act. We have to accept that any change with regard to the government will happen from the inside. Any improvement in the human rights situation will also happen from the inside. It will be a long process and we should not expect radical changes very fast. But we can, in a subtle way, create a framework. For example, by increasing student and cultural exchanges with Iran. Increasing the understanding between Iranians and Europeans is also a way of breaking the isolation. Such initiatives will slowly open up the society and support the changes, the forces for change.
hbs: Speaking of support for democratic voices in Iran: the European Parliament recently passed aresolution, which states that any future parliament delegations to Iran should be committed to meeting members of the political opposition and civil society activists, and to having access to political prisoners. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif responded by saying that Iran would not allow any future European parliamentary visits so long as the resolution was valid. A visit of an Iranian parliamentary delegation to Europe was just cancelled. How do you go forward in such a situation?
Tarja Cronberg: First of all, a parliamentary resolution is always a compromise and in this case it was a compromise between our own hardliners, who want to isolate Iran, and our reformists, who want to have a dialogue. In this specific case, the isolationists gained the upper hand and the resolution reflects their approach. In terms of policy, this will not make an actual difference though. All the EP delegations who have traveled or wanted to travel to Iran have always requested to meet political prisoners and civil rights activists. The only difference is that this is now written down, but it is not a change in policy.
Some Iranians have interpreted this as a humiliation though. There were two things that they are especially critical of: One concerns the statement that the presidential elections were not democratic enough. That was an offense to them. And the second was that in the resolution we require any EP delegation to request meetings with political prisoners. Unfortunately, as a reaction, a delegation of Iranian parliamentarians has now cancelled a planned visit to Brussels. This is a mainly a symbolic reaction though and we will continue our cooperation. The close cooperation with High Representative Ashton’s office will also move forward without any changes.
hbs: During her recent visit to Iran, High Representative Catherin Ashton addressed a variety of mutual concerns on which the EU and Iran could cooperate, such as the fight against Afghan drug trafficking. What other issues do you currently see on which the EU and Iran could work together?
Tarja Cronberg: First of all, I think it is important to have a EU representation in Iran. Such a representation creates the possibility of increased exchanges on all levels, such as cultural and student exchanges. This was also stressed by all the member states’ ambassadors during our meetings in Iran. Also the question of drug trafficking is very important and should be on the cooperation agenda. Lastly, a Human Rights dialogue between the EU and Iran remains important and should be continued in the future.
hbs: Thank you very much!
Tarja Cronberg, Member of the European Parliament and Chair of the EP delegation for relations with Iran, visited Washington, DC in April, 2014. She participated in a roundtable event to discuss a European outlook on current developments under Iran's President Rouhani, the ongoing nuclear talks in Geneva, and the future of relations between the West and Iran. She also held a range of bilateral meetings.