Transatlantic Relations

Both the U.S. and the EU are retreating from efforts to regulate the risks of AI. With growing economic nationalism and AI spending driving markets, the two sides are competing for AI innovation instead of collaborating to address AI risks and supporting trust in the technology. The Trump administration’s latest Executive Order on AI seeks to preempt state laws without a federal framework already in place, leaving a gap in regulation. Meanwhile, the EU is scaling back the AI Act. Big Tech stands to gain from the deregulatory pushes, while the populations of the U.S. and Europe absorb the risks.

As American voters have become more firmly entrenched in their party affiliations, fewer and fewer states are in contention and the margins of victory are increasingly slim. This year, polls suggest that in the handful of swing states that will determine the race, the winner could be decided by a razor-thin margin. Votes for third party candidates could be enough to tip the election – most likely, in favor of Donald Trump. 

No consistent picture has emerged yet as to how Kamala Harris would shape her foreign policy if she ends up being the next US president. Her time as Vice President gives at least some hints on how she might deal with China, the war in Ukraine, and policy in the Middle East

A Trump presidency would probably force the UK and EU to intensify their cooperation on security and defence. Fortunately, says Gesine Weber, this relationship was relatively less affected by Brexit. It would also push Europeans to have some difficult conversations about building on their own nuclear deterrent.

Security policy has always been a very high priority in Poland, which results from the country`s difficult past and the latent threat posed by Russia. The Russian invasion of Ukraine reaffirmed Poland`s commitment to its security policy and prompted more investment in defence. The country has now become an important player on NATO`s eastern flank. Joanna Maria Stolarek talks about this with Justyna Gotkowska, a security expert and deputy director of the think tank The Centre for Eastern Studies.

To get the transatlantic relationship back and on track and to ensure that it will remain relevant in the future, the United States and the European Union should prioritize putting forward concrete ideas and taking actionable steps on climate and energy, democracy and human rights, and digital technology issues.

The pandemic-driven boost of digital innovation holds opportunities, but it needs a sound political framework. From countering disinformation to preventing algorithmic discrimination, the U.S. and the EU need to work together to set the rules for our digital economies and societies.