Despite local successes in Michigan, national discontent and disaffection has made voters there less engaged with the presidential election in November. Here's why Michigan voters' fatigue with Washington could shape America's future this fall.
The state of Michigan boasts a democratic trifecta: Democrats control the governorship and both chambers of the legislature. So why is Biden trailing Trump in a state where Democratic alliances are going strong?
That’s one of the questions that inspired the Heinrich Böll Foundation, Washington, DC to visit Michigan in May with a delegation of German democracy activists as part of our Grow the Future study tour. Our goal was to get a better sense of the state of play in this swing state a few months before the elections, and we anticipated hearing from dissatisfied voters who could not fathom casting their ballot for the Democratic Party in November. But the picture that emerged after engaging with democratic organizers and political representatives on the ground was far more complex: Yes, the dissatisfaction with President Joe Biden, his age, and especially his foreign policy vis-a-vis Israel and the war in Gaza, was palpable. But overall, many people we spoke to had mostly positive things to say about the Democratic leadership in their own state of Michigan. Clearly, there was a disconnect.
These diverging sentiments were on full display when 101,000 (13.2%) Michigan Democratic voters cast an uncommitted ballot during the primary in February. Arab-, Muslim-American, African-American, and young voters wanted to send a message to abandon the presidential candidate Joe Biden. The same dynamic also explains why a non-profit organization like the League of Conservation Voters in Michigan decided to focus its democracy and voting campaign on down-ballot races without mentioning the presidential race. But down-ballot voting requires an understanding of the up-ballot stakes for Michigan’s future and American democracy.
In the case of a Democratic stronghold like Michigan, the incentives are even lower to care about the presidential candidates: Michigan Democrats were successful in securing abortion rights after the overturn of Roe v. Wade despite opposing trends in red states. With the help of grassroots organizations like Voters not Politicians, Michigan also rolled back gerrymandering, expanded ballot access, and combatted election subversion. If Trump 2.0 becomes a reality, the argument goes, Michigan Democrats could resist federal policies announced from the White House, as many blue states did during Trump’s first term.
All politics may be local, but the bigger story is that Michigan voters’ fatigue and dissatisfaction with politics in Washington, D.C. could deliver Trump the White House, since Biden only won the state by 154,000 votes in 2020. Margins are pivotal in America’s electoral system, and they are often quite small. That is reason enough for citizens from the Great Lakes State to mobilize around federal elections. To our surprise, however, the power that Michigan voters have in determining America’s long-term trajectory is not an integral part of the public debates on the ground.
Grassroots organizers in Michigan have yet to mount a concerted effort that communicates the stakes for U.S. democracy nationwide. It took U.S. media and Democratic pundits until the end of June 2024 to warn voters about the Heritage Foundation’s “Project 2025,” despite the fact that the Foundation published this 800-page document online back in April 2023, well before the primary contest had even started. Project 2025 spells out a playbook for dismantling the administrative state and puts forward a raft of policies that would greatly change the direction of the country. Voters in Michigan and elsewhere will feel the effects of these proposals in their day-to-day lives as they seek to exercise their full rights and freedoms.
Framing the stakes of federal races for democracy is the job of many hands. Unions in Michigan, one of the few organizations where people of all walks of life interact daily with each other, are well-positioned to make the case for democracy, as we heard from Kevin Tolbert, International Representative of the UAW and one of the chairs of the Michigan Democratic Party: They can rally their members, increase voting and political engagement, and spur collective action. They draw visible connections between the benefits of democracy (such as labor rights, health protections and family leave) and the quality of jobs. They can assert that democracy is about more than voting and ties into every worker's daily life. Even the fate of local unions is bound up in the federal election, since Project 2025 calls on a second Trump administration to limit the mandate of the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB).
Beyond the role of unions, local and state policies are crucially dependent on federal action. Consider the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act on a state like Michigan. In fact, Michigan is the leading state in acquiring clean energy projects through the IRA with $25 billion investments. The money goes to building battery factories, expanding EV production, and introducing wind and solar power alternatives, while creating more than 20,000 new jobs.
Yet, these efforts are not particularly well known to Michiganders. Polls and focus groups by Climate Power from June 2024 show that only one in five persuadable Michigan voters have heard about the Biden administration's efforts to transition to clean energy and combat climate change. Trusted local messengers, like Bridge Detroit, play a key role in informing communities about these complex policies. The hyperlocal journalism outlet made it its mission to be a public service provider to citizens in Detroit. “The starting point for any story of ours is: how are people impacted,” said Laurén Abdel-Razzaq, Executive Director of Bridge Detroit.
Until now, Michigan has been celebrated as a success story for forging strong, democratic alliances across diverse groups of voters. During our study tour, we had a front row seat to understand the work that goes into maintaining these broad coalitions for a greater common good. “We have to remind people that democracy takes effort,” emphasized Representative Laurie Pohutsky. The next few months will be critical, as Michigan’s decision could have profound implications for the trajectory of American democracy.