After the elections in the United States on November 5, we reached out to our global network of Heinrich Böll Foundation offices to hear how the second Trump Administration will impact countries and progress on green issues across the world.
After the elections in the United States on November 5, we reached out to our global network of Heinrich Böll Foundation offices to hear how the second Trump Administration will impact countries and progress on green issues across the world.
The reactions were collected immediately after the election and may not reflect the most recent events.
Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Mexico City
"Mexico is likely to face a new period of political tensions and economic uncertainty"
Florian Huber, Executive Director
The election of Donald Trump as the next US president will have far-reaching political implications for Mexico, including a return to more strained relations.
Trump repeatedly announced that he would strengthen and expand the border wall and deport undocumented people. We expect that he will resume and intensify this policy. Through restrictive asylum policies, he could pressure Mexico to detain migrants on their way to the United States in “asylum centers” and prevent them from arriving at the US border. Mexico may also face pressure to take its own measures to prevent migration at its southern border.
As part of his protectionist economic policy, Trump has announced that he will reintroduce tariffs on goods produced in Mexico, including electric cars. This could have a negative impact on investments in Mexico, which has benefited greatly from nearshoring in recent years. A weakening of the Mexican peso due to uncertainties in trade relations could also weigh on Mexico's economy. Finally, a review of the free trade agreement between the US, Mexico and Canada is scheduled for 2026. Trump could try to renegotiate parts of the agreement to erect further trade barriers.
Cooperation between the US and Mexico on drug control and cross-border crime could also become a key issue again. Trump has announced that he might declare Mexican cartels to be international terrorist organizations and has threatened to take unilateral action against them on Mexican territory, potentially using military force to do so. Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico's new president, has repeatedly emphasized the importance of national sovereignty in her public discourse. This would be jeopardized.
Mexico is likely to face a new period of political tensions and economic uncertainty. The country will have to adjust to greater political pressure from the US government, particularly with regard to migration, security and drug policy, as well as trade issues (as has already become apparent in Trump’s recent posts on Truth Social). The bilateral tensions will pose a challenge for the new government under President Sheinbaum.
Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Argentina
"It is clear that the Milei government welcomes the outcome of the US election"
Michael Alvarez, Executive Director
Menacing attacks against Congress, political opponents, journalists and activists; a sweeping blow against the so-called “Agenda 2030”, equal rights and the feminist movements; deregulation in every aspect of life; erosive dismantling and privatization of public policies as well as institutions and government agencies; cuts in funding for education and universities; shameless redistribution to the top achieved through vast cuts in pension programs and social support programs, including in funding for food aid for the 54% of the population that now lives in poverty…
If that sounds familiar, it’s hardly a coincidence: this is life almost one year into the government of the right wing Libertarian Party in Argentina.
It is evident that the Argentine government is meticulously following the playbook of the global new right on how to overthrow norms and consensus-building practices in a kind of Argentinian version of “Project 2025”. Just a few weeks ago, the government announced a kind of McCarthyist political cleansing in the Argentine foreign office, creating a new mechanism to screen highly professionalized (and by nature already conservative) staff for their political leanings.
When the news of a probable Trump victory spread in the first hours of November 5, a few dozen libertarians started to congregate at the obelisk in downtown Buenos Aires for a not-so-spontaneous victory celebration. Fireworks exploded over the Casa Rosada, Argentina’s White House. It is clear that the Milei government welcomes the outcome of the US election with enthusiasm and that Argentina will be deeply affected - perhaps more than other Latin American countries, apart from Mexico.
First of all, Milei and his right wing libertarian administration - and their unofficial army of trolls - will now feel empowered to intensify their aggressive campaigns and divisive attacks on almost everybody who disagrees with them, including conservative opponents or journalists. There have already been threats on democracy and civil liberties mounting in Argentina in the last months, from increasingly brutal repression on demonstrations to new initiatives on digital surveillance, which could be spurred on if the Argentinian government feels that it has the backing of the incoming US administration.
Secondly, the Argentine government now has an unconditional ally in the White House in its global “culture war” and, even more importantly, has high expectations for the economic and financial stabilization of its economy, which is in a deep recession after almost 10 months of radical cuts. Big hopes lay in being able to increase exports internationally and specifically to the US, but also in international and US investments flowing into Argentina, mainly in the mining and fossil industries. Democratic civil society and especially human rights activists are very concerned about the dismantling of national legal frameworks and of the guarantees provided by policies such as the Special Investments Regime RIGI, which could give corporations unlimited rights to access natural resources, including water and energy. Certainly, the Trump administration would defend such corporate rights in a US context.
The highest hopes in Buenos Aires, however, are that a second Trump Administration will press the IMF for billions of US dollars in loans to support the Argentinian government’s recessionary economic policy by, among other things, sustaining an artificially high exchange rate for the local currency against the US dollar. We will have to see, in the next weeks and months, whether this is wishful thinking or has some chance of becoming US policy within the logic of “America First”.
Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Kyiv
"Trump's unpredictability is seen as a plus"
Johannes Voswinkel, Executive Director
Donald Trump's re-election was followed with mixed feelings in Ukraine, but without panic. People are so worn down by night-long flight alerts and power cuts that there is little emotion left for international events.
Of course, many fear that US support in the form of weapons and money could wane and Ukraine could be forced into a peace agreement with territorial losses. Especially as Russia has made significant military gains on the Donetsk front in recent weeks. Elections in Ukraine after a humiliating peace agreement could end in domestic political chaos - with battle-hardened veterans as a power factor on the streets. This would fuel Ukraine's desire to join NATO in the near future, as well as the idea of independently developing the ultimate deterrent, nuclear weapons.
But there are also positive expectations, as Ukrainians try to find a silver lining. There was great disappointment at what Ukrainians see as President Biden's “hesitancy.” After all, it was Trump who, unlike his predecessor Obama, delivered lethal defense weapons such as Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine during his first term in office. Trump's slogans and catchphrases would ultimately have little in common with his actions, Ukrainians think. And his unpredictability is seen as a plus. With the conquest of territory in the Russian region of Kursk in August, Ukraine itself showed how much unexpected steps can change a supposed stalemate. The hope in Ukraine is that a US foreign policy of strength - “Make America Strong Again” - will ultimately lead to further military support for the Ukrainian armed forces with the aim of a quick, decisive liberation strike against the Russian occupiers.
In return, Ukraine would have “good deals” to offer “Business President” Trump: opportunities for the US economy. Zelenskyy has already emphasized Ukraine's potential in the exploitation of lithium, titanium, gold, uranium, and gas. The downside for the green agenda: ecological and social standards are unlikely to be a priority.
Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Brussels
"What is needed is action and courage"
Roderick Kefferpütz, Executive Director
Alarmed about a potential Trump win, the European Green Party – together with Green parties from 18 European countries – issued a statement prior to the election urging US Green Party candidate Jill Stein to withdraw from the presidential race and to endorse Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. But it was not to be.
Now that Donald Trump has been re-elected, European Greens have three main concerns. First, the future of Ukraine and European security. Greens in the EU have been one of the political forces most supportive of Ukraine’s fight for freedom and independence. Second, global cooperation on climate protection and biodiversity. And third, the preservation of democratic values and the protection of the rights of women (especially with regards to abortion) and LGBTQIA+ communities. In this context, Greens have highlighted that they stand in solidarity with those Americans who worry about what a new Trump presidency might mean for them.
Europe must not, however, fall into paralysis, fear, and inaction. To the contrary; what is needed is action and courage. Greens have therefore taken the opportunity to highlight the importance of the EU taking a leading role in global climate action and cooperating with international partners, strengthening European defense and security, and pushing back against autocrats and standing up for democratic values.
Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Rio de Janeiro
"Trump’s climate denial fuels similar discourses in Brazil"
Heinrich Böll Foundation Rio de Janeiro team
For Brazil, Trump’s influence, both in the US and internationally, poses a clear threat to democratic values. The growing ties between the US far-right and Bolsonarista movements are exemplified by the presence of Eduardo Bolsonaro—son of the former president—at Trump’s resort during the US election. This signals the strengthening of far-right networks across borders. As these connections deepen, the digital “culture wars” are likely to intensify, with disinformation campaigns receiving a boost. These efforts are likely to target global democratic institutions and to align with a broader agenda of dismantling democratic systems.
Trump’s stance on human rights, digital policy, and the environment also raises serious concerns. Trump reinforces reactionary and misogynist agendas that roll back the rights of women and the LGBTQIA+ population. Trump’s climate denial poses a major threat to global climate efforts and fuels similar discourses in Brazil. His rejection of climate science and protectionist policies will likely isolate the US from international climate discussions, potentially undermining a strong deal on climate finance that will benefit the Global South. This shift could limit multilateral cooperation, weakening institutions such as the UN and WHO and opening the door for more authoritarian regimes to set the agenda.
Elon Musk’s close ties with Trump could also complicate Brazil’s digital rights landscape. As the owner of X (formerly Twitter), Musk controls a platform known for amplifying disinformation and hate speech under the guise of free speech. In Brazil, X was taken offline for 39 days after defying court orders, sparking clashes with the Supreme Court and Justice Alexandre de Moraes. The platform was restored only after fines were paid and a legal representative was appointed. Musk’s disregard for Brazilian institutions, combined with his alliance with Trump, risks straining US-Brazil relations and undermining democratic safeguards. Trump also reinforces the discourse of freedom of expression, used by the Brazilian far right to ensure that there are no repercussions for those who spout misogyny, racism, hate speech, and more.
Trump's victory also highlights the need to build new democratic projects and imaginaries that engage with society's challenges.
Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Seoul
"Trump repeatedly questioned the presence of US troops in South Korea and Japan"
Kristian Brakel, Executive Director
The most memorable episode of South Korean-US relations in recent years was when President Yoon Seok-Yeol performed the Don MacLean classic “American Pie” at a DC state dinner in 2023. In Korea, karaoke (like almost everything) is highly competitive, and so Yoon was well prepared. And he greatly impressed the American audience.
However, South Korea might be much less well prepared for what comes next under a second Trump administration. The strong personal relationship that Yoon enjoyed with President Biden is unlikely to be repeated with Trump. Yoon himself, who recently tried to stage a coup and now faces possible impeachment and charges of insurrection, is only one part of the equation.
During his first term Trump vocally expressed not only his dislike for then liberal President Moon Jae-In – something which he probably shares with the conservative Yoon – but for South Koreans in general. This may inform his actions in his coming term as well.
The challenges ahead will focus on security and trade.
During his first term Trump had vocally expressed not only his dislike for then liberal President Moon Jae-In, but for South Koreans in general - something that might inform his actions in his coming term as well. Korea is still reeling from the fallout of Yoon`s coup attempt and the question how to handle it – and might be going through a period of political change. While it remains unclear if Yoon can be either impeached or put behind bars, the country is trapped in a state of limbo. As public pressure to get rid of Yoon is growing, new elections in Korea could see the head of the opposition Lee Jae-Myung elevated to head of state. His party’s stance on the US is much more critical than Yoon’s, but also are he and his party much less open to advance US supported rapprochement with Japan or to be tough on North Korea.
The general challenges ahead however will most probably remain the same with Trump: security and trade.
South Korea, like Japan, has been under a US security umbrella for decades. Both countries are highly dependent not only on the US military presence, but also on the US including them in wider security arrangements, such as when South Korea was offered cooperation under a possible AUKUS 2 pillar. Under the Biden administration South Korea and Japan have strengthened their security cooperation – an alliance that is deeply unpopular domestically due to Japan's colonial history in South Korea – with the goal of aligning to, together, rein in China.
Large swaths of the populations in both countries view the US military presence and alignment with US policy in the region critically. However, security experts understand that both countries are highly dependent on US deterrence against both China and North Korea.
This is especially true in the nuclear realm, where neither South Korea nor Japan have capabilities of their own, even if Japan theoretically maintains the right to enrich its uranium. China's rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal, as well as North Korea’s progress in developing missile technology, present geostrategic concerns. In polls, a majority of South Koreans would be in favor of their own nuclear armament if the US withdraws its protection. But it is doubtful that such a step would occur any time soon, given possible sanctions that such a move would incur.
In his first presidency, Trump repeatedly questioned the presence of US troops in South Korea and Japan -- a military presence that has anchored both countries in the US-led alliance. Just last month, Trump repeated the accusation that South Korea was not paying enough for its security and that the country was “a money machine” that could pay nine times the more than 1 billion USD that are due under the recently concluded Special Measures Agreement.
The other big unknown for South Korea is if Trump will revive his overtures to North Korea's Kim Jong Un. While parts of the liberal opposition actually hope that Trump might be successful in bringing both Koreas back to the negotiating table, it is unclear if Trump could get the US Congress to sign off on any agreement with North Korea that does not include total denuclearization, something experts say is a no-go for Pyongyang.
In the area of trade policy, both Japan and South Korea would suffer under tariffs imposed on exports to the US. Secondary barriers on China would add extra strain to the two countries, who export large amounts to the US.
If the enmity with China intensifies in the coming years - over tariffs, Taiwan, or something else - South Korea and Japan might be forced to take a much more hard line stance than they currently have. While a strategic decoupling from the Chinese market has partially started in Japan, it is much more unpopular in South Korea. In both countries, China is the number one trading partner, while the US is second. A partial or total renegotiation of the United States-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS) might also be on the table.
On the other hand, Trump promised to work with South Korea in competitive industries such as shipbuilding. And both South Korea and Japan, with little invested into transitioning to renewable energies, would benefit from a revival of the fossil fuels industry.
Still, Japan and Korea have at least one bargaining chip to play with Trump: in both countries, playing golf is a national pastime.
Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung San Salvador
"Central America will need to strengthen its partnerships with other committed actors"
Paola Vega Rodríguez, political scientist, environmental expert, and former deputy of the Asamblea Legislativa de la República de Costa Rica
The United States is the second largest emitter of greenhouse gasses - so having a climate change denier in the White House makes the goal of limiting global warming to less than 1.5º C even more difficult. In Central America, we expect a series of negative impacts for the environmental agenda.
Setbacks in international climate cooperation. With Trump's return to the presidency and his skeptical stance on climate change, the US is likely to reduce its participation in global climate agreements and push for environmental deregulation, which will affect crucial international collaboration and funding for Central America.
Reduced support for energy transition. The possible repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act and its subsidies for clean energy could limit investment opportunities and cooperation for energy transition projects in the region, slowing progress on developing sustainable energy sources.
Increased emissions and greater climate vulnerability. If the US reduces its commitments to reduce emissions and mitigate climate change, the increase in greenhouse gasses will aggravate global warming, intensifying the extreme weather events that directly affect Central America.
Possible abandonment of the Loss and Damage Fund. With Trump in the White House, US support for the Loss and Damage Fund could be weakened, affecting resources intended to compensate the most vulnerable countries, including those in Central America, for the impacts of extreme weather events.
Greater emphasis on fossil fuels. Trump plans to boost fossil fuel production, which could translate into less global pressure to move towards renewable energy. This could influence local policies and access to financing for the region, which relies heavily on international support to develop clean energy infrastructure.
All of these potential impacts increase the need to strengthen regional and international partnerships. With the weakening of US climate leadership, Central America will need to strengthen its partnerships with other committed actors, such as the European Union, to ensure access to resources and technical support for climate adaptation and resilience.