The candidate makes all the difference; the CDU finds itself outside parliament for the first time the Greens secure their place in the state parliament and are highly likely to become a governing party. The AfD becomes the strongest force and the sole opposition party.
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania has voted, and the results show that the candidate makes all the difference, buoyed by a clear strategy that emphasises regional political autonomy and takes a distinct stand against the federal government's messaging. At the same time, it is clear that the AfD is once again running a comparatively moderate campaign, through which it is both mobilising previous non-voters and winning over disillusioned former voters of the CDU and SPD. The political centre can currently only secure its majority in the state thanks to older voters – yet this is not a sufficiently stable power base for the democratic parties in the medium term.
Furthermore, the election brings with it two serious changes that are highly problematic for democracy: the CDU, once a catch-all party, narrowly fails to clear the five per cent threshold and, for the first time, is no longer represented in a state parliament. Provided the SPD, The Left and the Greens successfully form a government, there will no longer be a democratic opposition in parliament. This is a double first for a German state parliament, the consequences of which for democracy, polarisation and the quality of parliamentary life in the state are as yet unforeseeable.
The candidate makes the difference
The SPD's performance in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania can be attributed to a strategy of maximising the focus on individual candidates. The decision to focus on the candidate, in the face of persistently weak poll ratings in the state and a simultaneously strongly negative mood regarding federal politics, has paid off. Much like Cem Özdemir in Baden-Württemberg and Manuela Schwesig herself in the last election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the party was thus able to convert an outstanding candidate factor into party votes. The primary election objective – to remain the largest party – was not achieved, which is why a certain sense of disappointment is palpable after the election, despite the SPD securing over 30 per cent of the vote. Nevertheless, a majority sufficient to retain government was secured against a strengthened right wing. Manuela Schwesig is one of two winners of this state election.
This result is likely to further increase Schwesig's influence within the SPD, but above all it demonstrates just how crucial the figure at the helm is: a prominent figure with a strong personality and a leadership style that combines reliability and trust. Furthermore, parallels with Baden-Württemberg are evident here too: the distinction made from her own party. Of course, the lead candidate's party affiliation is well known and even forms part of the colour scheme; nevertheless, the party name is largely omitted from the campaign. This distancing was reinforced by a clear stance against the federal government, which her party helps to support (keyword: pension debate). The candidate championing the state's interests (the 'Woman for MV') is thus following what is actually a very well-established election campaign strategy, which in this case, however, was implemented particularly consistently and with a wide digal reach. Added to this, particularly in light of the results from Saxony-Anhalt, was a second line of communication: a clear distinction from the AfD ('the woman against blue').
Taken together, this resulted in a campaign that successfully combined a strong personality, a clear role as 'mother of the state' and an equally clear democratic stance (see, for example, Der Spiegel for a detailed account), and which enabled an (almost) successful comeback.
CDU out of parliament for the first time; party-specific reasons prevail
The incumbent thus succeeded in winning people over as a person and – currently often a difficult feat – in securing a clear incumbency advantage. This was essential to ensure that the negative perception of the CDU-SPD federal government, which also exists in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, did not become a disadvantage for the SPD. Rather, it is the CDU that is suffering here from poor national poll ratings. This effect was exacerbated by the intensifying SPD versus AfD dynamic, which presumably led to a significant shift in votes from the CDU to the SPD, though this should not be overestimated. It is primarily the CDU's own problems that have led to the party's failure. Worth noting is the significant loss of trust that is weakening the CDU-led federal government, and the Chancellor in particular. The state party, too, failed to win over voters, as the lead candidate, Daniel Peters, was not sufficiently well-known and was, moreover, rarely viewed in a positive light. Linked to this is a loss of perceived competence, particularly in the area of the economy: only 13 per cent now believe the CDU is capable of providing the best solutions in this area. Never before has the CDU's economic competence in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania been rated as poorly as it is now (-16 percentage points compared with 2021; Infratest dimap).
The Greens remain in the state parliament and are likely to be part of the next coalition government
Just over a year ago, the Greens in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania were in the midst of a serious crisis: allegations of abuse of power and inappropriate behaviour caused the situation to escalate. These were far from easy circumstances for Claudia Müller, a Member of the Bundestag and former Parliamentary State Secretary, who was tasked with steering the Greens out of this crisis and ensuring they retained their seats. On election night, it became clear that the mission had been accomplished – as had already been the case in Saxony-Anhalt, with the active support of the federal party. The Greens, who have traditionally been weak in the north-east, once again cleared the 5 per cent threshold and are, moreover, highly likely to form part of the future state government.
This means that, following Saxony-Anhalt, the Greens have once again succeeded in retaining representation in an East German state parliament. Tactical voting is likely to have played a role here, albeit to a lesser extent than in Saxony-Anhalt. During the election campaign, it became increasingly clear that a Green presence in parliament could prove significant for the formation of a government. The fact that the 'red-red-green' coalition model was clearly on the agenda is evident from the trend in the polls: whilst the SPD's rise clearly came at the expense of the CDU, the Greens remained unaffected by this shift and held steady in the pre-election polls.
The normalisation of the AfD is progressing
As was already the case in Saxony-Anhalt (which shares many similarities with Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in many respects, such as demographic structure), the AfD has also become the strongest force in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, albeit at a lower level. The pattern of success is similar: the AfD is mobilising both former non-voters and swing voters from its rivals, in this case primarily from the SPD and the CDU. Added to this is a new communication strategy: the AfD is once again adopting a less confrontational, and instead more welcoming and feel-good-oriented, campaign style. This makes sense in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, as the local party branch there is regarded as more moderate than its counterpart in Saxony-Anhalt. Crucially, however, this strategy has proved successful, as the AfD has indeed managed to be viewed by 38 per cent of people in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania as a centrist party. Specifically: 85 per cent of AfD voters see the party they voted for as generally positioned towards the centre, but 18 per cent, 14 per cent and 10 per cent of CDU, SPD and The Left voters, respectively, now see it that way too. Only Green Party voters do not see it this way at all (0 per cent agreement). This positioning presumably makes it relatively easy for many to cast a protest vote; as many as 36 per cent voted for the AfD out of disappointment with other parties. However, the proportion of AfD voters who support the party out of conviction has now risen to 53 per cent (+17 percentage points), so the AfD is clearly able to win people over with this communicatively moderate approach.
Government outlook: A red-red-green coalition without a democratic opposition
The AfD is unable to win over the other parties; the election result only allows for a majority coalition comprising the SPD, The Left and the Greens. This result largely reflects the will of the electorate, as 53 per cent want an SPD-led state government, whilst only 40 per cent prefer one led by the AfD. The parliamentary majority thus reflects the desire for government in a state where, after all, 42 per cent – predominantly voters for the AfD and the BSW – want fundamental change. However, there is no majority in favour of this, either at the electoral level or in terms of coalition preferences within parliament. What will also no longer exist in future is a democratic opposition party; this represents a first in German parliamentary politics and is a burden for the coming legislative term.
This article was originally published in German on boell.de.