US Elections and European Cohesion: Scenario Implications for Ukraine and Transatlantic Security

Over the last three years, the transatlantic alliance has demonstrated a largely remarkable unity in its support for Ukraine. Though the support has often been less ambitious and slower than Kyiv has needed, it has at least enabled Ukraine’s continued resistance against Russian aggression. As the war is soon to enter its fourth year, however, support is eroding. And the future of US policy is particularly uncertain; the fate of Ukraine’s battlefield will also be decided at the ballot box. 

Given this context, this paper explores how the European Union and its Member States could adjust their Ukraine and NATO policies, depending on the outcome of the US election. We plot out potential Harris and Trump administration policies on key questions related to support for Ukraine and NATO, as well as possible European responses and potential outcomes along the variables of unity and decisiveness.