Europe’s defence map is being redrawn. Our new Böll EU Brief tracks over 160 defence partnerships signed since 2014 among EU countries, the UK and Ukraine – most of them after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Bilateralism boosts trust, interoperability and procurement speed, but also risks duplication and fragmentation. To turn this patchwork into strategy, the EU and NATO should map and integrate these deals into joint planning, strengthen the European Defence Agency’s role, and use bilaterals to offset declining US support.
The fate of Ukraine’s battlefield will be decided at the US ballot box. This paper explores how the European Union and its Member States could adjust their Ukraine and NATO policies, depending on the outcome of the US election.