The US is reviewing its troops and bases in Europe. It could be the biggest change since the Cold War. What will it mean for Poland and Germany, and which gaps must Europe now fill with its own capabilities before the review results come out in December 2026?
The United States is conducting a review of its forces in Europe, signalling potentially the largest shift in America’s posture in Europe since the end of the Cold War. Washington announced a six month review of America’s troop deployments, equipment, and basing in Europe on June 18. Normally a semi-routine process, this review has taken on a more ominous significance as the Trump administration demands more of European partners, sends mixed signals about treaty commitments to allied defense, and began a new war with Iran while failing to address the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Importantly, this is not a global review of US forces but one intended to further drive home the administration’s goals of balancing burden-sharing with allies.
Understandably, this has led to some anxiety in European capitals. However, the US force posture review will not lead to the clarity Europe desires about US security commitments to the region, nor will it serve as a guarantee of sustained US security engagement. Based on the precedent set by previous reviews, this review will likely lead to a reallocation of forces within Europe, potentially strengthening–or at least not dramatically weakening–NATO’s eastern flank. Importantly, the US force posture review offers an opportunity for a frank assessment of critical gaps that need to be filled by European capabilities.
"The US force posture review offers an opportunity for a frank assessment of critical gaps that need to be filled by European capabilities.”
Before becoming Secretary of War, in Hegseth’s confirmation hearing he referenced strengthening the United States’ posture in the Indo-Pacific, likely at a cost to American forces in Europe. US forces in Europe are regularly rebalanced as the international security environment shifts. The Bush administration’s 2004 global review was the largest restructuring of the overseas US military posture since the Korean War, reducing US Army forces in Europe by 30,000 by FY2013. In July 2020, after the first Trump administration’s force posture review, Secretary of Defense Esper announced that roughly 11,900 troops would be repositioned out of Germany, with approximately 5,600 moving to other NATO countries. Ultimately, this drawdown did not happen as planned due to the change to the Biden administration. Biden ordered a global posture review in February 2021, reversing parts of Trump’s posture review such as removing the cap on US forces in Germany and announcing an additional 500 personnel. Following the 2022 further invasion of Ukraine, US forces in Europe have increased to provide further deterrence, with an emphasis on strengthening NATO’s eastern flank with rotational forces.
Although the final results of the ongoing review will not be known until December at the earliest–and even then a public version will not contain precise details–some themes have been publicly discussed. In the first Trump administration’s review, the number of American personnel in Germany was hotly debated. Following German Chancellor Merz’s public criticism of the United States in May 2026, the administration announced it would withdraw 5,000 troops in retaliation. In mid-May, Secretary Hegseth announced he was unexpectedly cancelling a 4,000 troop rotation to Poland, despite Poland being a model ally and leader within NATO on defense spending. It was later announced that the 5,000 troops removed from Germany would be shifted to Poland instead. This incident showcased the unpredictability and capriciousness of the administration’s approach towards its forces in Europe at a precarious moment in European defense. It is vital to recognize the ongoing US force posture review is not being conducted in a vacuum as Europe responds to hybrid threats and drone incursions.
Europe’s frontline states will be impacted more broadly by a lessened US force presence on the continent, however Germany and Italy will likely see the largest drawdown. The Baltic states host heel-to-toe US troops, with precise numbers fluctuating. Poland hosts the largest bastion of US forces of the frontline states. This is not one-sided charity: US troops gain valuable firsthand experience cooperating with allies and bases in Europe are used to support missions in the Middle East and Africa. Further, many European countries–including Poland and the Baltics–have stepped up in the last year to finance the US troop presence in their countries, encouraging the Trump administration to leave them in place.
Despite this significant funding, US troops and basing are one part of the US military footprint in Europe contributing to allied defense. A larger conversation has been ongoing since Trump’s return to office around the strategic enablers the United States military provides that Europe lacks, including: ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance), deep strike platforms, strategic airlift, air-to-air refueling, and command-and-control infrastructure. The US nuclear deterrent remains in place and is the ultimate guarantee of allied security, despite France’s new “forward deterrence” policy. Some European analysts have made the reasonable request for a timeline or roadmap to replace key US capabilities. Ultimately, even if such a timeline was agreed to by the Trump administration, the conditionality with which the United States applies to European allies makes it unlikely they would honor or respect this roadmap. It is projected to take at least five to ten years for Europe to scale its defense industry and invest in critical enablers to provide for its own defense. It is vital that the US force posture review does not leave Europe in a weakened or vulnerable state, particularly as it is investing in unprecedented ways for its own defense–at least a 20 percent increase year over year since 2022.
The US force posture review is the latest in a series of episodes over the future of America’s role in European security. This review will not be the final word in this saga, nor should Europe expect to receive a reprieve for its efforts. Rather than fearing for the worst–a dramatic drawdown of US troops, capabilities, and exposing vulnerability to Russia–this can instead be reframed as an opportunity for Europe to invest more in strategic enablers. Any potential withdrawal by the United States needs to be met by European capabilities to fill gaps and demonstrate deterrence. The US force presence review is not a reassuring move–but it is also not a reason to panic. Keep calm and carry on.
This article was originally published by Centrum Balticum on October 29, 2026.